Julianne Moore lost four times before she finally won Best Actress for Still Alice at the 2015 Oscars. More than a decade later, she’s back on top of Gold Derby’s odds for Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, and a second win would make her just the 16th actress to win the category more than once, joining a club that includes Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep, and Emma Stone. Moore is also the only past winner in the Top 5, and the three women right behind her have never been nominated. See where all of the top contenders rank in our photo gallery above.
Our Best Actress odds are derived from the combined forecasts of three unique groups: experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year.
Olivia Wilde ranks second for The Invite, the A24 comedy she also directed. She’s fourth in Best Director, too, and a Best Actress nod would make her the first woman to direct herself to an Oscar acting nomination. Only nine women have been nominated for Best Director, and none of them starred in the films they directed.
Inde Navarrette is third for Obsession, Curry Barker’s horror hit. Horror has done well with the academy lately. Amy Madigan won Best Supporting Actress last year for Weapons, and Demi Moore was nominated for Best Actress for The Substance the year before. Virginie Efira rounds out the never-nominated trio at No. 4 for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden.
Don’t count out a first-timer. Two of the last five Best Actress winners, Mikey Madison (Anora) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), won on their first nomination. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) won on her second, and Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) on her third. Emma Stone (Poor Things) was the only repeat winner of the bunch, taking her second Best Actress trophy on her fourth acting nomination after winning for La La Land.
The category’s biggest jump belongs to Sandra Hüller, who climbed into fifth place for Rose. The Anatomy of a Fall nominee swapped spots with Renate Reinsve (Fjord), who now sits sixth. That leaves three stars of international films in the Top 6, putting a record within reach.
Further down, Zendaya is climbing for Dune: Part Three. She’s also in the mix for The Drama, and under a rule change this year, an actor can now earn more than one nomination in the same category. Jessica Lange, a six-time nominee and two-time winner, is inching up for Long Day’s Journey into Night, while Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann) is sliding at No. 7. Meryl Streep is a long shot for The Devil Wears Prada 2, but an 18th Best Actress nomination would extend her own record.
Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 21, and the 99th Academy Awards air March 14, 2027, on ABC with Conan O’Brien hosting for the third straight year. Check out all of the top Best Actress contenders in our photo gallery above, and make your own predictions.
