While most of the prognostication taking place on Gold Derby is laser-focused on the Oscars, we are also tracking several key precursors. And we just noticed something interesting brewing over in the Actor Awards predictions. While our experts, the journalists and professional pundits who cover awards year-round for major outlets, have 20 different films ranked in the Best Picture leaderboard, there are only nine films on their radar when it comes to Best Ensemble, the Actors Awards’ top prize: The Odyssey, Wild Horse Nine, La Bola Negra, The Debut, The Invite, Being Heumann, I Play Rocky, Dune: Part Three, and Artificial.
Three of those currently have 100% odds of a nomination (The Odyssey, Wild Horse Nine, La Bola Negra), and two have an almost 73% chance (The Debut, The Invite). Right now, those five ensembles would fill out the category, with the recently released Being Heumann and I Play Rocky lurking at 18% each, and in position to move up should any of the front-runners slip.
Dune: Part Three and Artificial are the only other films receiving any consideration from our experts. Neither opens until December — Artificial has several FYC screenings set for the coming days, while Dune: Part Three isn’t expected to be shown to press and voters until early December — but both have reasons to attract early support. Audiences at the few festivals that have screened Artificial have responded well to Luca Guadagnino’s OpenAI origin story starring Andrew Garfield. As for the Dune threequel, both previous installments of Denis Villeneuve’s space opera have earned Best Picture nods (though not Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards), and his cast is stacked with awards-friendly A-listers, including Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Javier Bardem, Robert Pattinson, and Anya Taylor-Joy. If the film lives up to the considerable hype, its cast could crash the Ensemble party.
Will those nine films translate to the Best Picture race at the Oscars? With the Academy Awards allowing 10 films in, and with 76% of the Best Ensemble nominees historically going onto to receive Best Picture nominations, one would think there would be considerable overlap. According to the Gold Derby odds, there is — with a few notable exceptions.
The Odyssey, Wild Horse Nine, La Bola Negra, The Debut, The Invite, and Dune: Part Three all have 90% or better odds of landing a nomination. I Play Rocky also makes our Top 10 with a 45% chance, while Artificial ranks No. 11 with 41% and Being Heumann is No. 17 with roughly a 5% shot at a nod.
It’s understandable to see where the Actor Awards diverge from the Oscars. Project Hail Mary in a four-way tie at No. 1 is largely a one-man show for Ryan Gosling and doesn’t rely on an expansive ensemble, while You Can See Everything at No. 8 is classified as a documentary and is not eligible for the Actor Awards. Meanwhile, All of a Sudden (No. 10) is an international film, a group that tends to be less represented at the Actor Awards.
As noted at the jump, there is much more action in the Oscar predictions than the Actor Awards at this point. Check back in a few weeks, as the final films are more widely watched, as we might more movement.
