As if the competition between Olivias Dean and Rodrigo couldn’t get any closer, the two artists are now tied atop Gold Derby predictions for Album of the Year nominations.
Dean, last year’s Best New Artist, had been leading Rodrigo, the Best New Artist winner from 2022, by fractions of a percentage point as of earlier this week. But now the two are tied across both the combined odds of all Gold Derby users and the expert predictions. And while these odds are gaming the likelihood of nominations, both Olivias are expected to be favorites in the category once nominations are announced on Nov. 16.
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The tie completes a steady rise on Rodrigo’s part. Her third album, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love, has been climbing in the odds since its release in June. Dean, on the other hand, released her The Art of Loving all the way back in September 2025, near the start of eligibility, proving the record’s staying power.
The next tier down in terms of nomination likelihood is occupied by three albums hanging close together in terms of percentages. RosalÃa’s Lux, Bruno Mars’ The Romantic, and Raye’s This Music May Contain Hope are all likely nominees 85.6% and 86.9% in the combined odds.
Behind them is Madonna, whose Confessions II was a welcome return for the Queen of Pop to the Grammys conversation. The icon recently opened the MTV Video Music Awards, making her first live performance on the show in 20-plus years. Madonna is also expected to factor heavily into races further down the ballot, especially Dance and Electronic categories.
And then bringing up in the rear in the seventh and eighth spot are Taylor Swift with The Life of a Showgirl and Noah Kahan’s The Great Divide. Both sold well and remain high on the charts, but Swift’s 12th studio album faced some of the harshest reviews of the singer’s career. And Kahan’s continued success should keep him in the Grammys conversation for subsequent releases, but The Great Divide lacked a crossover hit on the scale of Stick Season.
Two notable records that sit just outside nomination range in the combined odds are Phoebe Bridgers’ critically beloved third album, Lost Weekend, and Ella Langley’s Dandelion.
