We are down to the wire ahead of nominations for the 69th Grammy Awards, which will be revealed Monday, and the competition between season-long favorites couldn’t be tighter.
Across the three top General Field categories, reigning Best New Artist Olivia Dean leads the odds. Her single “Man I Need” and album The Art of Loving currently sit atop Song of the Year, Record of the Year, and Album of the Year.
But before anyone predicts a clean sweep at the Feb. 7 ceremony, a full snapshot of Gold Derby’s nominations odds shows several races that are sure to be anything but a runaway.
Album of the Year
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 09: David Byrne attends the “The Testament of Ann Lee” New York special screening at Crosby Hotel on December 09, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Valerie Terranova/Getty Images for Searchlight Pictures)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 04: Alex Warren performs at the Spotlight: Alex Warren event at GRAMMY Museum L.A. Live on February 04, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Araya Doheny/Getty Images for The Recording Academy)
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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JUNE 04: Stella Lefty performs attends SiriusXM The Highway’s Music Row Happy Hour: CMA Fest Edition at Chief’s on Broadway on June 04, 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jason Davis/Getty Images for SiriusXM)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 04: Madison Beer attends the 66th GRAMMY Awards at Crypto.com Arena on February 04, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Neilson Barnard/Getty Images for The Recording Academy)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 02: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Madison Cunningham attends the 67th GRAMMY Awards on February 02, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 08: The Alchemist attends BET Hip Hop Awards 2024 at Drai’s Beach Club – Nightclub at The Cromwell Las Vegas on October 08, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Mindy Small/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 30: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) King Princess attends the 2026 MusiCares Person of the Year Honoring Mariah Carey at Los Angeles Convention Center on January 30, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
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INDIO, CA – APRIL 15: Eric Howk of Portugal. The Man performs onstage during the 2018 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival Weekend 1 at the Empire Polo Field on April 15, 2018 in Indio, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images for Coachella)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 14: Robyn attends SNL50: The Homecoming Concert at Radio City Music Hall on February 14, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
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LONDON, ENGLAND – MARCH 01: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Jade Thirlwall poses in the winners room with Pop Act award during The BRIT Awards 2025 at The O2 Arena on March 01, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by John Phillips/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 1: Silvana Estrada attends Variety’s 2024 GRAMMY Celebration at Mes Amis on February 1, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Elyse Jankowski/Getty Images)
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In Album of the Year, Dean has jockeyed with similarly named competitor Olivia Rodrigo, who is also making a strong showing in the top categories thanks to the success of her third album, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love. While currently atop the Billboard 200, months after its original release, the Rodrigo album has been in and out of the No. 1 spot in Gold Derby’s Album of the Year odds, suggesting that — barring some extraordinary snubs come nomination day — the category could come down to a pair of Olivias.
But not to be forgotten in Album of the Year is the contender currently ranked third, Rosalía. The Spanish singer just collected her third Album of the Year award from the Latin Grammys and boasts some of the strongest reviews of any contender this season.
Here are the eight predicted Album of the Year nominees: Olivia Dean’s The Art of Loving; Olivia Rodrigo’s You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love; Rosalía’s Lux; Bruno Mars’ The Romantic; Raye‘s This Music May Contain Hope; Taylor Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl; Madonna’s Confessions II; Noah Kahan’s The Great Divide; and Phoebe Bridgers’ Lost Weekend.
Record and Song of the Year
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Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 04: Alex Warren performs at the Spotlight: Alex Warren event at GRAMMY Museum L.A. Live on February 04, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Araya Doheny/Getty Images for The Recording Academy)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 04: Alex Warren performs at the Spotlight: Alex Warren event at GRAMMY Museum L.A. Live on February 04, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Araya Doheny/Getty Images for The Recording Academy)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
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INDIO, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 12: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Lil Uzi Vert performs at the Coachella Stage during the 2024 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival at Empire Polo Club on April 12, 2024 in Indio, California. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images for Coachella)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 24: Sienna Spiro visits SiriusXM Studios on March 24, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
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MILAN, ITALY – FEBRUARY 27: EsDeeKid (C) attends the Gucci FW26 Fashion Show at Palazzo Delle Scintille on February 27, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Victor Boyko/Getty Images for Gucci)
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PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 24: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY – For Non-Editorial use please seek approval from Fashion House) Dominic Fike attends the Saint Laurent Menswear Spring/Summer 2026 show as part of Paris Fashion Week on June 24, 2025 in Paris, France. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)
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The track-specific categories are where we see the emergence of another major player in this year’s conversation, Raye. Her track “Where Is My Husband” has hung around in both Song of the Year and Record of the Year, despite pressure from the Album of the Year favorites and the full force of the Taylor Swift promotional machine, which has seen her campaigning simultaneously for the Oscars and the Grammys.
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Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
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Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
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PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 24: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY – For Non-Editorial use please seek approval from Fashion House) Dominic Fike attends the Saint Laurent Menswear Spring/Summer 2026 show as part of Paris Fashion Week on June 24, 2025 in Paris, France. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)
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INDIO, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 12: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Lil Uzi Vert performs at the Coachella Stage during the 2024 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival at Empire Polo Club on April 12, 2024 in Indio, California. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images for Coachella)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 24: Sienna Spiro visits SiriusXM Studios on March 24, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
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MILAN, ITALY – FEBRUARY 27: EsDeeKid (C) attends the Gucci FW26 Fashion Show at Palazzo Delle Scintille on February 27, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Victor Boyko/Getty Images for Gucci)
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NEWARK, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 29: Tems attends Powerhouse NYC on October 29, 2022 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images for iHeartRadio)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 14: sombr visits SiriusXM Studios on April 14, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Loccisano/Getty Images)
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The Record of the Year and Song of the Year should also feature 2026’s biggest music story, the seemingly indefatigable Billboard Hot 100 run of Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas.” The song has notched 27 weeks at No. 1 and is currently the record holder for the longest run at the top of that chart.
But if “Choosin’ Texas” doesn’t end up making too big of an impact in Song of the Year or Record of the Year — which is possible given the polarized response to the track — Langley is poised to be a presence elsewhere in the top categories.
Here are the Record of the Year predicted nominees: Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need”; Raye’s “Where Is My Husband”; Olivia Rodrigo’s “The Cure”; Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas”; Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia”; Bruno Mars’s “I Just Might”; Tame Impala’s “Dracula”; and Rosalía, Björk, and Yves Tumor’s “Berghain.”
These are the Song of the Year predicted nominees: Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need”; Raye’s “Where Is My Husband”; Olivia Rodrigo’s “The Cure”; Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas”; Noah Kahan’s “The Great Divide”; Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You”; Bruno Mars’s “Risk It All”; and Sienna Spiro’s “Die on This Hill.”
Best New Artist
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 13: Julia Wolf performs onstage during the “Lost Americana” Tour at Barclays Center on December 13, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images for Universal Music)
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ELMONT, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 11: Monaleo attends the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards at UBS Arena on September 11, 2024 in Elmont, New York. (Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images for MTV)
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MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 28: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Sasha Keable attends The BRIT Awards 2026 at Co-op Live on February 28, 2026 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – MARCH 19: Vincent Mason performs at the Ryman Auditorium on March 19, 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jason Kempin/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 18: JT speaks onstage during The Black Beauty Talks with rap icon JT at The Times Center on February 18, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Rob Kim/Getty Images for The Black Beauty Club)
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Which brings us to Best New Artist. Langley is currently in second place, behind the long-reigning number one in Gold Derby’s odds, Sienna Spiro. The English singer made an inescapable track (especially for those on TikTok) in “Die on This Hill,” which could also find Spiro in Song of the Year. The record sits just within nomination range, in eighth place.
Here are the final Best New Artist predicted nominees: Sienna Spiro, Ella Langley, Geese, Slayyyter, Malcolm Todd, Role Model, Audrey Hobert, and Don Toliver.
Be sure to check back with Gold Derby on Monday morning for a complete rundown and analysis of the Grammy nominations, as well as the first snapshot of winners odds later in the week.
