Just try to get through a party, dinner, or even an elevator ride, without debating You Can See Everything.
The film that’s captured the zeitgeist just dominated the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, sweeping all five prizes it was nominated for.
As we’ve explained, You Can See Everything will also be eligible for the regular Critics Choice Awards, though not the Golden Globes or the Actor Awards. With Oscar voting just two months away, let’s check in on how the film’s momentum is building in the Academy Award races, given the You Can See Everything‘s critical and box office success.
As it stands now, Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim‘s groundbreaking documentary could earn up to four nominations.
BEST PICTURE
As one Oscar voter told us, “At this point, it’s too big to fail.” No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture before, but it looks like precedent is going to be broken. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100% and a haul of $80 million at the box office (and climbing), it’s no wonder the A24 documentary stands at No. 8 on our leaderboard, with an 85% chance of getting a nomination.
Best Picture
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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
This is perhaps the trickiest category to predict. The famously fickle doc branch — just 770 members strong — has proven itself to be resistant to more commercial fare, as we outlined here. That said, our combined odds and our experts both have You Can See Everything at No. 3 — though a very likely scenario is that the film is snubbed by the doc branch, but nominated for Best Picture.
Best Documentary Feature
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Once Upon a Time in Harlem
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BEST DIRECTOR
Could Fielder and Oppenheim make history as a rare directing duo to get a nomination? Only five pairs have ever been nominated in the 98-year history of the Academy Awards — but the two are currently tracking to earn a nod, as are Los Javis for La Bola Negra. Fielder and Oppenheim have edged out Denis Villeneuve for the still-unseen Dune: Part Three to claim the No. 5 slot in the director race.
Best Director
1.
Christopher Nolan
The Odyssey
2.
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo
La Bola Negra
3.
Martin McDonagh
Wild Horse Nine
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5.
Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim
You Can See Everything
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amanda Seyfried is still sitting just outside of contention in the No. 6 slot, but she has yet to start campaigning in earnest — and Penélope Cruz is holding two of the five slots, with her roles in The Invite and La Bola Negra. This is the first year that the Academy will allow an actor to be nominated more than once in a given category, but it remains to be seen if voters will follow suit. The other major awards, including the Golden Globes and the Actor Awards, are holding firm on one actor, one nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
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Anne Hathaway
The Odyssey
2.
Samantha Morton
The Odyssey
3.
Penelope Cruz
La Bola Negra
4.
Tao Okamoto
All of a Sudden
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Amanda Seyfried
You Can See Everything
BEST EDITING
Adam Locke-Norton, a frequent collaborator of Fielder’s, has been nominated for Emmy Awards for his work on The Rehearsal. Now his editing work — which earned him a trophy from the Critics Choice Doc Awards — pits him against colleagues from The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, and Wild Horse Nine. But culling down over 700 hours of footage has earned him fourth place in our odds.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
David Bolen took home the cinematography prize at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, but at the Oscars, he’s competing against the likes of past nominees Hoyte van Hoytema for The Odyssey, Linus Sandgren for Dune: Part Three, and Greig Fraser for Project Hail Mary. Our oddsmakers currently have Bolen in seventh place in the category.
BEST SCORE
This category, too, may be another case where a Critics Choice Documentary Awards winner goes ignored by the larger Academy. Remember, critics are not Oscar voters, who have very specific tastes and voting preferences. Ari Balouzian’s score has to contend against works from Ludwig Göransson (The Odyssey), Daniel Pemberton (Project Hail Mary), Hans Zimmer (Dune: Part Three), and John Williams (Disclosure Day), putting You Can See Everyting at a distant eighth place.
