John Malkovich’s last Oscar nomination came at the 1994 ceremony, for playing a would-be presidential assassin in In the Line of Fire. Thirty-two years later, he’s No. 1 in Gold Derby’s Best Actor odds for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine. It would be his first Best Actor nomination, following supporting nominations for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire, and he’s still looking for his first win. See where all of the top contenders rank in our photo gallery above.
Our Best Actor odds are derived from the combined forecasts of three distinct groups: experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the top 24 users with the highest accuracy scores last year.
Matt Damon is second for playing Odysseus in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. He already has an Oscar, just not for acting. He and Ben Affleck won Best Original Screenplay for Good Will Hunting at the 1998 ceremony. Damon’s three acting nominations, for Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian, all came up empty.
The next two spots belong to actors who have never been nominated. Andrew Scott ranks third for Elsinore, playing Ian Charleson, the Chariots of Fire star who played Hamlet at London’s National Theatre while he was dying of AIDS. Robert Pattinson is fourth for playing Chris Hansen in Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime.
A first-timer winning Best Actor wouldn’t be anything new. Three of the last five champions, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale), won on their first nomination. Will Smith (King Richard) won on his third try, and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is a perfect 2-for-2 after winning for The Pianist.
The real fight is for the last spot. Ryan Gosling is climbing for Project Hail Mary and ranks fifth, while Tom Cruise is sliding for Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger and now sits sixth. Gosling has three nominations (Half Nelson, La La Land, and Barbie) and no wins. Cruise has three acting nominations, the last for Magnolia at the 2000 ceremony, and picked up an honorary Oscar at last year’s Governors Awards, presented by Iñárritu.
Further down, Anthony Ippolito is seventh for playing Sylvester Stallone in I Play Rocky, and John Turturro is inching up at No. 8 for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Believe it or not, Turturro has never been nominated for an Oscar. Pedro Pascal, meanwhile, is slipping at No. 9 for Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth!
Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 21, and the 99th Academy Awards air March 14, 2027, on ABC with Conan O’Brien hosting for the third straight year. Be sure to make your own predictions before nominations are revealed.
