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Home»Awards & Events»Supporting Actor Oscar odds: Artificial star Andrew Garfield surges
Awards & Events

Supporting Actor Oscar odds: Artificial star Andrew Garfield surges

Williams MBy Williams MOctober 15, 2026No Comments2 Mins Read
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Could AI have predicted this?

In the week or so since Artificial first screened for critics — and Andrew Garfield earned near-unanimous praise in early reviews for his portrayal of OpenAI founder Sam Altman — he has skyrocketed into the awards conversation, and is poised to reshape the supporting actor race.

While he’s juuuuuust outside contention at No. 6 (for now), he has leapfrogged over the rest of the pack by 30% in the last five days — including John Goodman (Digger), Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine), and Colman Domingo (Michael). And the film hasn’t even opened yet in theaters. We’ll have to wait for Christmas Day to see what impact the box office has on his chances.

'Street Fighter,' 'Musk,' 'You Can See Everything'

He’s not the only one riding a wave in the category: La Bola Negra star Guitarricadelafuente is up 16%, giving him the No. 5 slot — ahead of that film’s theatrical release this weekend.

The top four contenders are otherwise relatively stable: The Debut star Paul Giamatti still holds on to the No. 1 slot, followed by Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), John Leguizamo (The Odyssey), and Edward Norton (The Invite).

Best Supporting Actor

1.

Paul Giamatti

2.

Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

Wild Horse Nine

3.

John Leguizamo

John Leguizamo

The Odyssey

4.

Edward Norton

5.

Guitarricadelafuente

Guitarricadelafuente

La Bola Negra

6.

Andrew Garfield

Andrew Garfield

Artificial

7.

John Goodman

8.

Steve Buscemi

Steve Buscemi

Wild Horse Nine

9.

Colman Domingo

10.

Robert Pattinson

Robert Pattinson

The Odyssey

Garfield has more ground to make up over at the Golden Globes. He’s riding a significant bump there, too — he’s up 21%, but that’s only enough for eighth place for now, behind Michael star Colman Domingo (No. 6) and Goodman (No. 7, though he’s down 9%).

Best Film Supporting Actor

1.

Paul Giamatti

2.

Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

Wild Horse Nine

3.

Edward Norton

But at the Actor Awards, his 18% surge is strong enough to propel him into the No. 6 slot. Again, that’s just outside of contention — for now. Guitarricadelafuente, however, is further down the list at No. 9. Will La Bola Negra‘s popularity be enough for him to breakthrough at the Actor Awards as an international performer this year? Watch this space.

Film Supporting Actor

1.

Paul Giamatti

2.

Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

Wild Horse Nine

3.

John Leguizamo

John Leguizamo

The Odyssey

4.

Edward Norton

5.

Colman Domingo

6.

Andrew Garfield

Andrew Garfield

Artificial

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