Street Fighter is heading for No. 1 at the box office, but the real fight this weekend is between two Oscar-hungry documentaries.
Paramount’s video game adaptation is tracking for $25 million to $35 million, with another $35 million expected overseas for a global start near $70 million. Kitao Sakurai directs the third live-action take on the Capcom franchise, after the 1994 Jean-Claude Van Damme version and 2009’s Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li. Noah Centineo stars alongside Jason Momoa, 50 Cent, and WWE’s Cody Rhodes and Joe Anoa’i, part of a deep bench of famous faces.
The real battle is further down the chart. A24’s You Can See Everything opens in roughly 800 theaters and is tracking between $7 million and $12 million. For scale, Melania set the biggest opening for a non-music documentary in more than a decade earlier this year with $7.1 million — from more than twice as many screens. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s Elizabeth Holmes film is one of the best-reviewed movies of the year, and A24 is campaigning it for Best Picture, where no documentary has ever been nominated.
Alex Gibney’s Musk expands nationwide from Bleecker Street the same weekend after a four-theater start that brought in $68,900. It won’t trouble the top five, but the Oscar race is another story, with both films in the top five of Gold Derby’s Best Documentary Feature odds.
Best Documentary Feature
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Once Upon a Time in Harlem
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20th Century Studios’ Whalefall is on pace for third with $6 million to $12 million. Brian Duffield directs Austin Abrams, fresh off Resident Evil, as a diver trapped inside a sperm whale in the adaptation of Daniel Kraus’ novel, with Josh Brolin and Elisabeth Shue co-starring.
Universal’s Other Mommy lands fourth with $10 million to $15 million in its second weekend. Jessica Chastain’s horror film opened to $27.5 million but drew a D-plus CinemaScore, which usually means a drop of 60% or more.
Focus Features’ Sense and Sensibility hopes to round out the top five with $5 million to $8 million. Georgia Oakley’s Jane Austen adaptation stars Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles as the Dashwood sisters, with Caitríona Balfe, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw. Verity could make it close. Anne Hathaway’s Colleen Hoover adaptation took second last weekend with $11.4 million, and a typical third-frame drop would land it right around the same number.
Outside the top five, Netflix’s La Bola Negra goes limited after winning the Toronto People’s Choice Award, a prize with a long history of launching Best Picture campaigns. Roadside Attractions’ horror film Crawlers and Abramorama’s The Trial of Alec Baldwin also open.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the Oct. 16-18 weekend:
- Street Fighter — $28 million
- You Can See Everything — $11 million
- Whalefall — $10 million
- Other Mommy — $9 million
- Sense and Sensibility — $6 million
Check back Sunday for the actuals and to see how they compared with our predictions.
Street Fighter
Director: Kitao Sakurai
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Street Fighters Ryu and Ken reunite when Chun-Li recruits them for the World Warrior Tournament. As they face a hidden conspiracy, they must confront each other and their past — or face destruction. The action movie has a running time of one hour, 59 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Street Fighter falls into the “rotten” category with a 34% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 48.
Whalefall
Director: Brian Duffield
Distributor: 20th Century Studios
Follows a scuba diver who, while looking for his father’s remains, is swallowed by an 80-foot, 60-ton sperm whale and has just one hour to get out before his oxygen runs out. The thriller has a running time of one hour, 46 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Whalefall is “certified fresh” with a 74% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 62.
You Can See Everything
Directors: Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim
Distributor: A24
Thirty-four days before she’s sent to prison, notorious Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes invites a skeptical film crew to document her every move. What begins as an intimate portrait becomes a mind-bending three-year journey. The documentary has a running time of two hours, 54 minutes, and is rated R. You Can See Everything has a perfect “100% fresh” rating per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; stellar notices signaling “universal acclaim” compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 98.
Musk
Director: Alex Gibney
Distributor: Bleecker Street
A thorough and unvarnished analysis of Elon Musk, a technology billionaire who serves as the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter. The documentary has a running time of three hours, 52 minutes, and is rated R. Musk is “certified fresh” with a 98% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 76.
Sense and Sensibility
Director: Georgia Oakley
Distributor: Focus Features
An irresistible new take on Jane Austen’s iconic Sense and Sensibility: a charming, witty, and deeply relatable story of love and sisterhood starring Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles. The classic romance has a running time of two hours, 11 minutes, and is rated PG. Sense and Sensibility is “certified fresh” with a 75% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 71.
La Bola Negra
Directors: Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
Distributor: Netflix
Explores what it means to be gay throughout different eras, focusing on “three existences” that are connected through themes of sexuality, desire, pain, and inheritance. The romance has a running time of two hours, 40 minutes, and is rated R. La Bola Negra is “certified fresh” with a 91% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “universal acclaim” compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 84.
Crawlers
Director: Ángel Gómez Hernández
Distributor: Roadside Attractions
Tenants at Paradiso Palms apartments fight a deadly spider invasion while the cunning building manager might be their only hope for survival. The horror movie has a running time of one hour, 21 minutes, and is rated R. As of this writing, Crawlers had no consensus reviews on Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic.
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