All eyes are on the Golden Globes as one of the major precursors of the awards season — and last year, the voters proved themselves to be indeed global, embracing international films in place of blockbusters. They also proved prescient in terms of some eventual Oscar winners, particularly the One Battle After Another team — and if they leaned heavily into overseas actors (Wagner Moura, Stellan Skarsgård), well, isn’t that the point?
The voting body, which has now expanded to 450 — roughly 100 more than last year, and far more than the 90 or so of the pre-reform days — is still largely composed of international members. Time will tell where this expanded group’s tastes lie, and how far their opinions diverge from the old guard. Yes, there will still be that inclination to get star power in the room — it is, after all, still a TV show. Worth noting, too, that this is the first year that U.S.-based journalists covering for U.S. outlets have been allowed to join — accounting for 50 or so of the new members.
With submissions due at the end of the month and ballots due Nov. 23, there are still plenty of questions lingering about how the Globes voters will handle key decisions this cycle. Here’s what Gold Derby has learned from recent conversations with awards strategists.
How many international films will get into Best Drama?
Last year, non-English-language titles dominated major categories, with three of the six drama slots going to It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, and The Secret Agent. This year may well be a repeat, with significant buzz building among voters for La Bola Negra, Fjord, and All of a Sudden. Other strong contenders include Fatherland and Possible Love.
This is where the makeup of the new voting body comes into play — the majority still live and work abroad, and they’ve been spending the last few months at festivals overseas like San Sebastián, where those titles have been racking up awards. “Winning at festivals means it’s going to get in,” says one strategist, who’s been on the ground for months with voters. Look for those films — and their stars — to break through into Best Drama and the acting races.
And how many international actors will get nominated?
To answer the natural follow-up question, we can look to last year, when five non-U.S. actors earned nominations, three of whom went on to win: The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura, Hamnet‘s Jessie Buckley, and Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. With actors like Renate Reinsve (Fjord), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), Sandra Hüller (Rose, Fatherland, Digger, Project Hail Mary), Guitarricadelafuente (La Bola Negra), and Tao Okamoto (All of a Sudden) in the conversation this year, expect that total to grow.
Will voters forgive or forget Tom Cruise?
In years past, he would have gotten nominated on star power alone. This year … it’s complicated.
In 2021, Tom Cruise returned his three trophies — yes, he really did — as a sign of solidarity amid the scandal that erupted following the Los Angeles Times‘ exposé of the lack of diversity among the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the group that then voted on the Globes, but has since been dissolved). He hasn’t asked for his trophies back.
Do any of the voters remember, and will they hold it against him? “The old guard remembers that he gave back his Globes and hasn’t engaged with the Globes since — until now,” says one strategist. He didn’t campaign with them for Top Gun: Maverick or the two Mission: Impossible films (Dead Reckoning and The Final Reckoning), but he gently dipped his toes back in for Digger, inviting a few key members to a heavily controlled trailer launch/photo op in July.
Then there’s the matter of the film itself, which has debuted to a critical and box-office bashing. “If Digger was a more successful movie, he would be a contender,” says another strategist. But then there’s the Julia Roberts rule — she was nominated last year for After the Hunt, despite mixed reviews. With the Globes splitting the acting category into drama and comedy — and with six slots in each — there’s far more room for him to be forgiven, and to get nominated. And while he’s falling off in the Gold Derby Oscar odds, he’s far safer on our Globes leaderboard.
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor
1.
John Malkovich
Wild Horse Nine
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Brad Pitt
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Will studios submit for Best Box Office Achievement?
The award was first introduced three years ago to recognize “the year’s most acclaimed, highest-earning, and/or most viewed films that have garnered extensive global audience support and attained cinematic excellence.” The problem is that the voters tend to use it to recognize a film that they’re not giving Best Picture — and it’s come to be known as the “consolation prize.”
Consider the past three winners: Barbie (2023), which lost Best Picture to Oppenheimer and Poor Things; Wicked (2024), which lost Best Picture to The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez; and Sinners (2025), which lost Best Picture to Hamnet and One Battle After Another.
Studios have the option whether to submit to the category — and given the choice, they may simply opt to sit out, forcing the voters to give the film their support in the more prestigious Best Picture race. Faced with tough choices, the voters tend to spread the wealth so they can recognize more than one film. This could prove a key strategic decision for films like Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros. declined to enter Part Two), Obsession, and Michael, which could get crowded out of Best Picture.
Which films will go Best Comedy/Musical?
Amid the internet backlash to Obsession‘s strategic decision to submit as a comedy, other studios are still weighing their own plans as the deadline approaches. And though the Globes committee does discuss whatever submissions are made, it is not likely to challenge whatever lands on its desk.
Amazon MGM Studios, for example, has two heavy hitters: I Play Rocky and Project Hail Mary. Call it Rocky vs. Rocky. Both have screened well with voters, report our sources, but there’s not enough room in the drama race for both, especially with the international films expected to dominate there. One strategist predicts I Play Rocky will submit as drama, while Project Hail Mary will enter as comedy to avoid competing against each other — meaning their actors will follow suit.
Another factor at play among the voters: U.S. politics — and how voters can show their displeasure for a very unpopular American president. One strategist pointed to I Play Rocky, which elevates Sylvester Stallone, who has since become aligned with Trump. “I heard more than once from people, how can I support or vote for a film about Stallone?” reports one strategist. “[There’s] some major hate around Stallone.”
Will Globes voters shun or embrace Michael?
By any measure, Michael was one of the surprises of the season — a box-office smash that made a star out of its leading man. But is it awards-worthy?
The first question is whether Lionsgate will submit it as a drama or a comedy/musical, and the strategists consulted by Gold Derby were split. “You could make a point either way,” says one, who predicts Michael will go drama — that the Globes will look foolish if they let it go musical just because it has music in it. Historical precedent is split when it comes to musical biopics: Bohemian Rhapsody won as a drama, along with its lead actor; Elvis was nominated as a drama and won for its lead actor; meanwhile, Ray was nominated as a comedy/musical and won for its lead actor; and Walk the Line won as a comedy/musical, as well as for its lead actor and actress. To be fair, the rules were since changed so that the music has to drive the narrative — a film just can’t be classified as a musical because it has music in it.
But regardless of which category Michael enters, there’s also the question of the film itself. How will international voters feel about a sanitized film that ignores the troubled history of its subject — or will they deem Americans too uptight? The film did, after all, gross $1 billion worldwide, showing that the global audience was largely unfazed.
Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.
