All together now: The Social Reckoning is NOT The Social Network.
Critics have not embraced writer-director Aaron Sorkin‘s follow-up nearly as much they did the David Fincher-directed contemporary classic (reviews have been mixed at best; it’s struggling to stay above 60% on Rotten Tomatoes), and early predictions for the box office pale in comparison as well, with just $7 million vs. $22 million projected for the opening weekend.
So does the new film have any chance with the Academy? Network earned eight nominations overall: Best Picture, director (Fincher), lead actor (Jesse Eisenberg), adapted screenplay, cinematography, editing, original score, and sound mixing. It went on to win for Sorkin’s screenplay, editing, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ score.
That’s a high bar for Reckoning to match — and an early look at the Gold Derby leaderboards paints a far different picture for the new film. But all is not lost: There are key categories where Reckoning contends. Here’s a look at where it stands:
BEST PICTURE
The Top 10 is stacked with festival favorites, box-office hits, and international features that have won over audiences worldwide. In other words, this one’s a long shot. Right now, Reckoning is tracking at No. 21 in our odds. So barring a box-office miracle, it’s unlikely to break through.
Best Picture
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BEST ACTRESS
On paper, this must have seemed an ideal follow-up to her Oscar-winning turn in Anora: A starring role in an acclaimed writer’s film which would give Mikey Madison yet another chance to show off her preternatural skill with rapid-fire dialogue. What a difference a year makes. Granted, back-to-back wins would have been an Oscar rarity, and the Best Actress field is comparatively weak this year. But Madison’s efforts as whistleblower Frances Haugen have her languishing at No. 11 in our odds.
Best Actress
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Inde Navarrette
Obsession
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Virginie Efira
All of a Sudden
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Ruth Madeley
Being Heumann
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Sandra Hüller
Fatherland
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Rosalind Eleazar
Misty Green
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Jessica Lange
Long Day’s Journey into Night
BEST ACTOR/SUPPORTING ACTOR
Let’s start with Jeremy Allen White: Sorry to say he’s in for back-to-back disappointments after last year’s Deliver Me From Nowhere, which went … nowhere. It’s not just that this year’s Best Actor race is stacked with heavy hitters — it’s that as Wall Street Journal reporter Jeff Horwitz, White is not given that big “aha” moment that makes for an Oscar clip, so he’s buried in our odds at No. 39. The other Jeremy — the famously Method Actor Strong, stepping in for Jesse Eisenberg, who didn’t want to be typecast as Mark Zuckerberg — hasn’t received the warmest of reviews for his chilly portrayal of the Facebook Meta CEO. Strong has an uphill battle in the supporting category, against far more popular contenders — especially the surging Andrew Garfield for Artificial, who’s now at No. 7. Count him as the more likely winner in the face-off of the tech bros villains.
SCREENPLAY
When Sorkin writes a movie, he’s likely to get nominated: Four of his screenplays have gotten nominations, including The Social Network (adapted), Moneyball (adapted), Molly’s Game (adapted), and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (original). So this category represents the film’s best chance at a nod — it’s currently at No. 8 in our combined odds for Adapted Screenplay. But it’s worth noting that we hear the film may be submitted as an original screenplay (and that’s how it’s being labeled in the marketing), though source material included Haugen and Horwitz’s books, as well as the Journal‘s reporting. Ultimately, the decision lies with the WGA, and we’ll update the category as we learn more.
SCORE
This time out score chores were handled by the legendary Alexandre Desplat — a 12-time nominee and two-time winner (The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water). This marks his first collaboration with Sorkin — and given his track record, he’s likely to be recognized by the branch. Our odds for the category currently have him at No. 25, but look for them to move up as the movie gets more widely screened and campaigned.
