Penélope Cruz earned raves for her performance as a lusty dinner guest in The Invite, and buzz abounds that she might clinch her fifth Oscar nomination for the role. Ironically, her biggest competition in the category might just be… Penélope Cruz. At least according to experts and users on Gold Derby, who currently have the actress in the top five for her supporting role as a nightclub singer in La Bola Negra as well as The Invite.
Best Supporting Actress
1.
Anne Hathaway
The Odyssey
2.
Samantha Morton
The Odyssey
3.
Penelope Cruz
La Bola Negra
4.
Tao Okamoto
All of a Sudden
5.
For the first time in more than 50 years, such a double nomination might be possible. In May, the Academy rescinded a long-standing rule barring actors from being nominated more than once in a category. The rule change opens the field for dual nods as long as “those performances place in the top five votes, which aligns with achievements in other award categories.” (For what it’s worth, a performer cannot be nominated in different categories for the same movie, which seems obvious until you consider that in 1945 Going My Way actor Barry Fitzgerald was nominated for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, winning the latter.)
The rule change couldn’t come at a better time: Cruz is just one of several actors with multiple movies in the Oscar conversation this year who could score the historic double. Among 2026’s overachievers: Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, who already appeared in The Drama and The Odyssey and have Dune: Part Three on the horizon. Pattinson also has a lead turn in Primetime to consider. Other potential double nominees include Olivia Colman (Wicker, Elsinore), Willem Dafoe (Late Fame, Tenzing, Werwulf), and Adam Driver (Paper Tiger, Misty Green).
And then there’s Sandra Hüller, who has four viable campaigns to keep track of: two in supporting actress (Project Hail Mary, Digger) and two in lead (Rose, Fatherland).
So does being in more than one film help or hurt a given star’s chances? Conventional wisdom says they risk splitting their own votes, but awards strategists interviewed by Gold Derby challenge that long-held perception. “I think sometimes we pit people against each other and that’s not how voters think,” says one strategist. “We’re constantly guessing how people think and feel and making assumptions that aren’t proven.” Adds another: “Splitting the vote is a false narrative — great work begets great work.”
Another pointed out that it ultimately comes down to how voters perceive the performances. “A rising tide lifts all boats, and the work speaks for itself,” says another strategist. “Someone with a lot of good work is actually easier to campaign.”
Of course, it is competitive out there, and rival studios may not be willing to share (not to mention those travel and styling bills), especially if a given actor has limited bandwidth for campaigning. “Studios are constantly telling us that if a client is doing promotion for one movie, they have to mention theirs as well,” said a personal publicist working with a client eligible in two categories this year. “It’s gone as far as them timing how many seconds they spoke about Film A versus Film B on a talk show.” But, they add, clients ultimately make the choice for themselves. “I can advise them which film has the most potential and what people are responding to, but I still present them all the offers and they decide what to do. And soon enough, it becomes clear what has momentum.”
Take Anne Hathaway, who is currently the Best Supporting Actress front-runner for The Odyssey — but also has roles in Mother Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Verity and The End of Oak Street. Says one voter in the directors’ branch, “I’m voting for her in Mother Mary but let’s be frank, it’s not a realistic player. So when she’s nominated for The Odyssey, I’ll definitely be thinking of all her great work this year.” Another example he points to is Renate Reinsve — a likely best actress nominee for Fjord who also starred in Backrooms, a wildly successful film that probably won’t figure into the Oscar race.
“Of course you’re going to want to have the standout movie,” he said. “But in the end, the films have to speak for themselves.”
