With the Venice-Telluride-Toronto triple whammy in the rearview, we get to exhale for a beat before the fall awards-campaigning onslaught begins in earnest. The momentary break gives us a chance to examine the post-festival Oscar landscape based on Gold Derby’s prediction data and see which films have gained momentum, which films held steady, and which films lost steam in recent weeks amid more screenings and reviews.
This early snapshot comes with caveats. First, our leaderboard odds are for Oscar nominations, not necessarily winners. Ultimately, 10 films will make the cut, and our data is measuring which contenders have the best chance at a nod. Second, several key films have yet to be screened (Dune: Part Three, Behemoth!, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Artificial) or reviewed (The Social Reckoning, Digger), so read their current placement as a combination of pedigree, buzz, and vibes, especially when it comes to the overall user odds vs. the experts, whose picks are based on more inside knowledge.
With that in mind, here are both charts followed by a half-dozen takeaways we gleaned.
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Expert-Only Predictions
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User and expert sentiment has coalesced around 9 films
Although the order differs, both the Gold Derby experts (the journalists, critics, and professional pundits who cover films and awards) and users have faith that the following movies are the current favorites to make the Best Picture slate: The Odyssey, Wild Horse Nine, Project Hail Mary, The Debut, La Bola Negra, The Invite, Dune: Part Three, Fjord, and Digger.
Among combined users, all but Fjord (52%) have a 70% or greater chance at a nomination, with The Debut leading the field at 93%. Experts are iffier on Fjord (64%) or Digger (52%), but they do see five films with a better than 90% chance at securing a nod: The Odyssey (100%), Wild Horse Nine (100%), Project Hail Mary (96%), The Debut (92%), and, fresh off its big TIFF People’s Choice win, La Bola Negra (92%).
Gonna fly now?
Following a triumphant premiere at TIFF and several screenings for media in New York and Los Angeles, I Play Rocky has seen its expert-only odds leap 24% in recent days to come within striking distance of the top 10. The Sly Stallone origin story now sits at No. 14 with a 24% chance for a nomination, according to the experts. Only the Andrew Scott-starring festival favorite Elsinore has seen a greater gain, jumping 30 points to take the 10th slot, with a 40% shot at a Best Picture bid.
The lurkers
There’s bound to be some upheaval as films are more widely seen outside the fall-festival bubble and anticipated movies that skipped the circuit get released. While we wait for that inevitable shake-up, we’re hoping the forthcoming New York Film Festival will give us a better sense of how Behemoth!, Artificial, Paper Tiger, and You Can See Everything could figure into the race. Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! will have its world premiere at the fest and good word-of-mouth could elevate it from its current position at No. 12 among both users and experts, while Luca Guadagnino’s Artificial is hoping for a bounce following the drama over its distribution; it’s currently sitting at No. 16 with a 16% shot at a nomination among users. Meanwhile, James Gray’s Paper Tiger is looking for a second wind following mixed reaction at Cannes, and we’ll have clarity on whether Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything is a serious player following its buzzy Telluride sneak peek.
Beyond the NYFF-ers, Gold Derby users and experts have earmarked a relatively small pool of other fest favorites within striking distance of the top 10, including Club Kid, All of a Sudden, Being Heumann, Ink, and Josephine.
We anticipate a few Hollywood blockbusters to make the Best Picture field, led by known quantities The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary. Based on Denis Villeneuve’s track record with the previous Dune installments, both experts and users have penciled in Part Three, which won’t be released until Dec. 18. If Motion Picture Academy voters are feeling generous — and history shows that big box office can influence nominations — there are two other ginormous hits both sitting pretty in the top 20. Curry Barker’s horror phenomenon Obsession occupies 11th place for both users and experts, while Michael has moonwalked to No. 15 for users and No. 20 for experts.
The wild card
Monday brought us a reminder of another looming contender, as Netflix dropped the official trailer for The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth directed by Oscar nominee David Fincher from a screenplay by two-time champ Quentin Tarantino and with Brad Pitt reprising his Best Supporting Actor-winning role from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Based on that pedigree alone, the film will be in the awards conversation, even though it hasn’t registered yet in the Gold Derby odds.
The warning signs?
A deep dive into the expert-only odds reveals some troubling news for a few films. With reviews still a week away, Digger has suffered the steepest drop in the past few days, falling 23 percentage points but still holding onto the No. 9 spot for now. Ink has also experienced a double-digit tumble following its festival run, dipping 13 points to No. 16. The experts also aren’t sold on the Best Picture prospects of Primetime, The Social Reckoning, Fatherland, Minotaur, or Paper Tiger, all of which have lost support since our previous update. While The Social Reckoning had its first screening last week — in the presumably favorable environs of Silicon Valley, as opposed to L.A. or New York — the other films have had ample festival exposure and critics/FYC showings.
