Sorry, Spidey: As we laid out last week, it’s extremely unlikely that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will contend in the marquee Oscar categories. Even with the expanded 10-film Best Picture field, it’s hard to see room for the Marvel film in the courtesy slot typically designated for a blockbuster — i.e., the space occupied by F1 at the most recent Academy Awards — with The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, and Dune: Part Three already penciled in.
But with Brand New Day setting box-office records and on pace to become just the eighth film to top $2 billion worldwide, there is a way for voters to celebrate its achievements in an above-the-line category: By nominating Tom Holland for his acting… in The Odyssey.
While he is off the Best Actor radar for playing Peter Parker, Holland is very much in the mix for starring as Telemachus in The Odyssey, currently sitting at No. 11 in the current Gold Derby predictions. Here are three ways Brand New Day could help put him over the top.
Best Supporting Actor
1.
2.
3.
Sam Rockwell
Wild Horse Nine
4.
Steve Buscemi
Wild Horse Nine
5.
6.
John Leguizamo
The Odyssey
7.
8.
Robert Pattinson
The Odyssey
9.
10.
Mark Ruffalo
Being Heumann
11.
12.
Too big to ignore
Brand New Day just surpassed $1 billion in ticket sales, the second-fastest film to that milestone. Without any box office competition for the foreseeable future, the Marvel movie will continue to dominate the movie charts through the summer and is on pace to be the top-grossing Hollywood release since 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water. (The animated Chinese feature Ne Zha 2 grossed $2.27 billion last year.) As the friendly neighborhood Spider-Man, Holland is the face of the franchise, and voters with a vested interest in the success of a struggling industry may want to reward him by throwing support his way for The Odyssey.
Plus, there’s some history in Holland’s favor. With the caveat that correlation doesn’t indicate causation, over the past 30 years, there have been several examples of actors who’ve secured a nomination in the same year they starred in a blockbuster (which we’re defining as having $200 million-plus in box office). Call it the Oscars equivalent of the halo effect.
| Year | Actor | Oscar-nominated role | Blockbuster |
| 1996 | Tom Cruise | Jerry Maguire | Mission: Impossible |
| 2004 | Jamie Foxx | Ray | Collateral |
| 2007 | Johnny Depp | Sweeney Todd | Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End |
| 2012 | Anne Hathaway | Les Misérables | The Dark Knight Rises |
| 2013 | Jennifer Lawrence | Silver Linings Playbook | The Hunger Games: Catching Fire |
| 2013 | Bradley Cooper | American Hustle | The Hangover Part III |
| 2014 | Benedict Cumberbatch | The Imitation Game | The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies |
| 2015 | Jennifer Lawrence | Joy | The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 |
| 2019 | Scarlett Johansson | Marriage Story/Jojo Rabbit | Avengers: Endgame |
| 2021 | Benedict Cumberbatch | The Power of the Dog | Spider-Man: No Way Home |
Let’s make history
After notching the biggest all-time opening weekend domestically, Brand New Day is seemingly breaking records daily. Likewise, The Odyssey is poised to etch itself in the annals of the Academy Awards. By our calculations, the Christopher Nolan film has a very navigable path to tying Sinners‘ nomination record of 16. If The Odyssey‘s gravity can pull in another actor or two in the supporting races, similar to the inevitable One Battle After Another, then the Homer adaptation would establish a new Oscars benchmark. Voters could celebrate the history-making Brand New Day by anointing Holland and making history as well with The Odyssey.
He deserves it
With his carefree charm and aw-shucks performance style, it’s easy to overlook Holland as an actor. Indeed, in The Odyssey reviews, several critics considered him a weak link in a film loaded with heavy hitters and sure-fire nominees. But others extolled Holland’s work as the embattled son of Odysseus trying to prove himself worthy of his father while attempting to protect his mother from ill-intentioned suitors. After debuting at No. 8 in Gold Derby’s prediction data for Best Supporting Actor, he has slipped three spots, but still remains in striking distance of a nomination.
Of the actors in front of him, six represent five films that have yet to be screened and remain unknown commodities (The Debut, Digger, Wild Horse Nine, Ink, Being Heumann) — and none of which will have the cultural impact of eitherThe Odyssey or Brand New Day. Another, Michael‘s Colman Domingo, is from a film that was a huge commercial success but almost universally savaged by critics. There’s a good chance this race will change dramatically.
So we still have months to keep spinning out the scenarios, but as we saw with Sinners last year, a zeitgeist film cannot be discounted, and with two such movies on his ledger this year, the math could work in Holland’s favor. As a big star in a big film, maybe his Spidey sense will be tingling come nomination morning in January.
