One of the major music stories of the year is undoubtedly Ella Langley and her seemingly never-ending run atop the Billboard Hot 100 with her 2025 single “Choosin’ Texas.” The song’s chart domination and ensuing controversy (about whether the song was actually as popular as its performance would suggest) naturally led to conversation around her odds at the Grammys.
With major competition in Song of the Year and Record of the Year, the softest landing place for Langley appeared to be Best New Artist, and her ranking there in Gold Derby’s odds seemed to support a run in that category similar to what “Choosin’ Texas” did on the Hot 100.
But that’s no longer the case.
As of Oct. 16, Sienna Spiro, the singer of the very viral “Die on This Hill,” has overtaken Langley to claim the top spot in the Best New Artist nomination odds, with Langley just behind in a close second.
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The come-up is a bit of a coup for Spiro, who trailed Langley in the category throughout the campaign season and even into first round voting, which ended last week. And while the odds only take nomination likelihood into consideration, the switch-up calls into question what many thought to be Langley’s best shot at a Grammy win come February.
Langley’s fall from No. 1 in the Gold Derby odds comes shortly after a Rolling Stone article ignited conversation online about country music and the relevance of charts in the streaming era. One key piece of evidence put forward by Langley detractors is the apparent absence of “Choosin’ Texas” as a viral sound on TikTok. Meanwhile, Spiro has seen her profile skyrocket largely thanks to “Die on This Hill” and its ubiquity on the platform.
With “Choosin’ Texas” once again reclaiming No. 1 on the Hot 100 after a few weeks away, the song remains popular, but the narrative around it and its place in the industry this year may be beginning to shift.
