Christopher Nolan‘s The Odyssey is skyrocketing in two key Oscar categories as the film completes its third blockbuster weekend in theaters.
Samantha Morton and John Leguizamo are both up double digits this week in the supporting acting races, per Gold Derby’s experts’ odds. For her role as the sorceress Circe, Morton has climbed 28% to rank second for a nomination in Best Supporting Actress. Leguizamo, who plays Odysseus’ faithful blind servant Eumaeus, has surged 35% and now places fourth for a bid in Best Supporting Actor. There will ultimately be five finalists in each category.
Morton is a two-time Academy Award nominee, with bids for Sweet and Lowdown (supporting, 1999) and In America (lead, 2003). Leguizamo is still looking for his first career Oscar nomination.
Morton’s closest competitor is her Odyssey co-star, Anne Hathaway, who is up 2% in the odds this week. There is a question of which category Hathaway will compete in for playing Penelope, the wife of Odysseus (Matt Damon). Gold Derby has her slotted in supporting for the moment, but Universal tells us that no final decision has been made about where she will be campaigned.
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Elisabeth Shue
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BERLIN, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 17: Julia Jones poses at the “The Weight” photocall during the 76th Berlinale International Film Festival Berlin at Grand Hyatt Hotel on February 17, 2026 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Sebastian Reuter/Getty Images)
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Gal Gadot
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Thomasin McKenzie
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 31: Greta Lee attends the “Past Lives” New York Screening at The Metrograph on May 31, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Theo Wargo/Getty Images)
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 22: Mia Tharia attends the “September Says” Photocall at the 77th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 22, 2024 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
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Olivia Cooke
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 11: Tatiana Maslany attends The 76th Annual Tony Awards at United Palace Theater on June 11, 2023 in New York City.
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Fiona Shaw
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Kerry Condon
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Caitriona Balfe
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LONDON, ENGLAND – JULY 10: Jessica Gunning attends The South Bank Sky Arts Awards 2022 at The Savoy Hotel on July 10, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Jeff Spicer/Getty Images)
Jeff Spicer/Getty Images
Currently, the projected Best Supporting Actress lineup consists of Hathaway at 93%, Morton at 73%, Penélope Cruz (La Bola Negra) at 67%, Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) at 60%, and Sandra Hüller (Digger) at 33%.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 11: Gerard Butler attends the “How To Train Your Dragon” premiere during the 2025 Tribeca Festival at SVA Theater on June 11, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images for Tribeca Festival)
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LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 18: Josh Hartnett attends the 2024 EE BAFTA Film Awards at The Royal Festival Hall on February 18, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by John Phillips/Getty Images)
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Jamie Bell
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Benedict Wong
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Guy Pearce
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Colin Firth
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Colman Domingo
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LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 27: Frank Dillane during the BFI Presents “Urchin” Preview & Q&A at BFI Southbank on September 27, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for BFI)
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Chris Messina
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Damian Lewis
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Brendan Fraser
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As for Best Supporting Actor, there’s a tie at the top of our experts’ predictions between Paul Giamatti (The Debut) and Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), both with 86%. John Goodman (Digger) is next in line at 64%, followed by Leguizamo at 57%, and Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine) at 50%.
Nolan and The Odyssey have been major contenders in the 2027 Oscar contest since the film was first put on Universal’s calendar. And now, the ecstatic reviews and mythic box-office totals are combining to turn the film into a potential Oscar juggernaut. As we noted last month, the film has a legitimate path to top Sinners‘ record of 16 nominations. Here’s a look at where the other above-the-line categories stand with our experts.
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The Adventures of Cliff Booth
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Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
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The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
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Mother Mary
A24
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Madden
Amazon MGM
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Wuthering Heights
Warner Bros.
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The Devil Wears Prada 2
20th Century
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Hope
Neon
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The Weight
Vertical
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The Uprising
Focus
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 17: Fernando Meirelles attends the “Beast Race (Corrida dos Bichos)” premiere during 2026 SXSW Conference and Festival at The Paramount Theatre on March 17, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Erika Goldring/Getty Images)
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The Dog Stars
20th Century
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Harmonia
Bleecker Street
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 26: Stephanie Ahn attends the 29th Annual SAGindie Filmmakers Luncheon at Sundance at Cafe Terigo on January 26, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Fred Hayes/Getty Images for SAGindie)
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Gail Daughtry
SPC
Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass
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Poetic License
Row K
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Ha-Chan
SPC
Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!
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The Get Out
Vertical
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The Wizard of the Kremlin
Vertical
The Wizard of the Kremlin
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Verity
Amazon MGM
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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 10: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, winners of Original Screenplay award for ‘Anatomy of Fall’ pose in the press room during the 96th Annual Academy Awards at Ovation Hollywood on March 10, 2024 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images)
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 20: Anton Corbijn attends Stacy’s Roots to Rise Market at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival in Park City, UT on January 20, 2023. (Photo by Presley Ann/Getty Images for Stacy’s Pita Chips)
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Forgotten Island
DreamWorks
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Bitter Christmas
Warner Bros.
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Brian Cox
Andrew Morales for Variety
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The Christophers
Neon
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Never After Dark
Magnolia
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Her Private Hell
Neon
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Couture
Vertical
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In the Hand of Dante
Netflix
For Best Picture, The Odyssey is currently tied with Project Hail Mary at 100% as the two most likely films to receive nominations. Other top contenders to watch out for include Dune: Part Three, La Bola Negra, and Wild Horse Nine, all at 92%, and Digger at 83%.
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Phil Lord, Christopher Miller
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Michael Showalter
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PARIS, FRANCE – JANUARY 13: Olivier Assayas attends the “Le Mage Du Kremlin” Premiere at Cinematheque Francaise on January 13, 2026 in Paris, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Pedro Almodovar
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 24: (L-R) Eleanor Wilson and Alex Huston Fischer attend the “Wicker” Premiere during the 2026 Sundance Film Festival at Eccles Center Theater on January 24, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
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Alex Huston Fischer, Eleanor Wilson
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 18: Brian Duffield attends the No One Will Save You FYC Event at Linwood Dunn Theater in [Hollywood], California on May 18, 2024. (Photo by Jesse Grant/Getty Images for 20th Century Studios)
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Ridley Scott
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 25: (L-R) Julia Jones, Ethan Hawke, Padraic McKinley and Austin Amelio attend The Vulture Spot At The 2026 Sundance Film Festivalon January 25, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Robin Marchant/Getty Images for Vulture)
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Never After Dark
Magnolia
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Paul Greengrass
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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 10: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, winners of Original Screenplay award for ‘Anatomy of Fall’ pose in the press room during the 96th Annual Academy Awards at Ovation Hollywood on March 10, 2024 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images)
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BERLIN, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 17: Director Matt Johnson poses at the “BlackBerry” photocall during the 73rd Berlinale International Film Festival Berlin at Grand Hyatt Hotel on February 17, 2023 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Gerald Matzka/Getty Images)
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 20: Anton Corbijn attends Stacy’s Roots to Rise Market at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival in Park City, UT on January 20, 2023. (Photo by Presley Ann/Getty Images for Stacy’s Pita Chips)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 13: Boots Riley attends the Los Angeles premiere of Neon’s “I Love Boosters” at DGA Theater Complex on May 13, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
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LONDON, ENGLAND – APRIL 22: David Frankel attends “The Devil Wears Prada 2” European Premiere inside Leicester Square on April 22, 2026 in London, England. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
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Steven Soderbergh
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Taika Waititi photographed for the Variety Playback Podcast at the PMC Studio in Los Angeles.
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LES ARCS, FRANCE – DECEMBER 14: Alice Winocour attends the Couture Photocall during Day Two of Les Arcs Film Festival on December 14, 2025 in Les Arcs, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 27: Noah Segan attends “The Only Living Pickpocket In New York” Premiere during the 2026 Sundance Film Festival at Eccles Center Theater on January 27, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 17: Chuko Esiri and Arie Esiri during an interview and portrait session for “Clarissa” during the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at CBeach on May 17, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
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71.
Kent Jones
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Already the front-runner for director, Nolan has extended his lead and now comes in with 100% support for a bid. That puts him ahead of Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo (La Bola Negra) at 79%, Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine) at 71%, Alejandro G. Inarritu (Digger) at 64%, and Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Three) at 64%.
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Alexander Skarsgard
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MADRID, SPAIN – FEBRUARY 04: Miguel Bernardeau attends the premiere of “La Fiera” at Cine Capitol on February 04, 2026 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Juan Naharro Gimenez/Getty Images for Disney)
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Josh Brolin
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CABOURG, FRANCE – JUNE 13: Emmanuel Macchia attends the “Coward” photocall during Day Four of the 40th Cabourg Film Festival on June 13, 2026 in Cabourg, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Alden Ehrenreich
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 20: Leonardo Sbaraglia poses during the “Amarga Navidad” (Bitter Christmas) photocall at the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 20, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Hoda Davaine/Getty Images)
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CABOURG, FRANCE – JUNE 13: Valentin Campagne attends the “Coward” photocall during Day Four of the 40th Cabourg Film Festival on June 13, 2026 in Cabourg, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Odysseus himself, Damon, has made big gains with our experts. The three-time Oscar nominee is now their No. 1 choice for a nom at 93%, ahead of runners-up Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) and Tom Cruise (Digger), both at 80%. Rounding out the top five are John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) at 67% and Sebastian Stan (Fjord) at 40%.
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The Adventures of Cliff Booth
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The Wizard of the Kremlin
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Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass
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Finally, for Best Adapted Screenplay, Nolan’s script is in fourth place for a nomination at 88%. The other likely nominees are Project Hail Mary and The Invite at 94%, La Bola Negra at 88%, and The Social Reckoning at 38%. Gold Derby will open predictions for the below-the-line categories soon.
Expect these odds to climb as The Odyssey continues to dominate the box office. After three weeks, it has earned $395 million domestically and $911 million worldwide. It should reach the $1 billion mark in the coming days.
